没有公式，你看下面的信息自己做一个正反比例的模型，然后倒入这几年的经济数据拟合吧！！---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------一般理论上来说,利率下降时,股票的价格就上涨；利率上升时,股票的价格就会下跌。因此,利率的高低以及利率同股票市场的关系,也成为股票投资者据以买进和卖出股票的重要依据。利率对于股票的影响可以分成三种途径:一是利率变动造成的资产组合替代效应,利率变动通过影响存款收益率,投资者就会对股票和储蓄以及债券之间做出选择,实现资本的保值增值。通过资产重新组合进而影响资金流向和流量,最终必然会影响到股票市场的资金供求和股票价格。利率上升,一部分资金可能从股市转而投向银行储蓄和债券,从而会减少市场上的资金供应量,减少股票需求,股票价格下降；反之,利率下降,股票市场资金供应增加,股票价格将上升。二是利率对上市公司经营的影响,进而影响公司未来的估值水平。贷款利率提高会加重企业利息负担,从而减少企业的盈利,进而减少企业的股票分红派息,受利率的提高和股票分红派息降低的双重影响,股票价格必然会下降。相反,贷款利率下调将减轻企业利息负担,降低企业生产经营成本,提高企业盈利能力,使企业可以增加股票的分红派息。受利率的降低和股票分红派息增加的双重影响,股票价格将大幅上升。三是利率变动对股票内在价值的影响。股票资产的内在价值是由资产在未来时期中所接受的现金流决定的,股票的内在价值与一定风险下的贴现率呈反比关系,如果将银行间拆借、银行间债券与证券交易所的债券回购利率作为参考的贴现率,则贴现率的上扬必然导致股票内在价值的降低,从而也会使股票价格相应下降。股指的变化与市场的贴现率呈现反向变化,贴现率上升,股票的内在价值下降,股指将下降；反之,贴现率下降,股价指数上升。以上的传导途径应该是较长的一个时期才能体现出来的,利率调整与股价变动之间通常有一个时滞效应,因为利率下调首先引起储蓄分流,增加股市的资金供给,更多的资金追逐同样多的股票,才能引起股价上涨,利率下调到股价上涨之间有一个过程。如我国央行自1996年5月以来的八次下调存款利率,到2002年1年期定期储蓄存款的实际收益率只有1.58%。在股票价格在较长时间内持续上涨的情况下,股票投资的收益率远远高于存款的报酬率,一部分储蓄存款转化为股票投资,从而加快了储蓄分流的步伐。从我国居民储蓄存款增长率来看,1994年居民储蓄存款增长率45.6%,之后增幅连年下滑,而同一时期股票市场发展迅速,1999年下半年开始储蓄分流明显加快,到2000年分流达到顶点,同年我国居民储蓄存款增长率仅为7.9%。这一年股票市场也牛气冲天。2001年储蓄分流则明显减缓,增长率14.7%,居民储蓄倾向增强。2001年股市波动性加大,股价持续几个月的大幅回调,则是2001年储蓄分流减缓、居民储蓄存款大幅增加的主要原因之一。另外,利率对于企业的经营成本影响同样需要一个生产和销售的资本运转过程,短时间内,难以体现出来。因此,利率和股票市场的相关性要从长期来把握。实际上,就中长期而言,利率升降和股市的涨跌也并不是简单的负相关关系。就是说,中长期股价指数的走势不仅仅只受利率走势的影响,它同时对经济增长因素、非市场宏观政策因素的反应也很敏感。如果经济增长因素、非市场宏观政策因素的影响大于利率对股市的影响,股价指数的走势就会与利率的中长期走势相背离。典型如美国的利率调整和股市走势就出现同步上涨的过程。1992年至1995年美元加息周期中,由于经济处于稳步增长阶段,逐步收紧的货币政策并未使经济下滑,公司盈利与股价走势也保持了良好态势,加息之后,股票市场反而走高,其根本原因是经济增长的影响大于加息的影响。我国从1996年5月进入降息周期的拐点。股指也进入上升周期。利率与股指的走势发生了5年的负相关关系。但2001年在利率没有进入升息周期的情况下,股指开始了下跌的趋势。分析其原因,我国非市场宏观政策因素的影响大于利率对股市的影响。人们对非流通的国有股将进入市场流通的担心和恐惧导致了股市投资的风险和收益发生了非对称的变化。从这个角度来看,由于我国目前非市场宏观政策因素仍然有比较大的不确定性,所以利率对股市的影响不能够成为我们研究和预测股市中长期走势的主要因素。就短期而言,我国利率的变动对股价的走势很难判断存在相关性。利率调整当天和随后的股价波动并不能说明二者之间有何必然的联系。从当前股市的状况分析,很明显也和利率的走势不符合理论上的负相关性。股票市场的低迷更多地被归结为上市公司的质量以及诸多体制性问题和投资者信心问题。因此,在看待我国加息预期对于股票市场的影响时,还要考虑其他诸多因素,而不能简单从前文所述的理论关系来判断。利率只是影响股市的因素之一,而不是惟一决定因素。因此,我们不能唯利率升降是从,要具体分析,何况即使利率上升,股市也并不是就完全没有投资机会。Interestrates.Mostpeoplepayattentiontothem,andtheycanimpactthestockmarket.Butwhy?Inthisarticle,we''llexplainsomeoftheindirectlinksbetweeninterestratesandthestockmarketandshowyouhowtheymightaffectyourlife.TheInterestRateEssentially,interestisnothingmorethanthecostsomeonepaysfortheuseofsomeoneelse''smoney.Homeownersknowthisscenarioquiteintimately.Theyhavetouseabank''smoneythroughamortgagetopurchaseahome,andtheyhavetopaythebankfortheprivilege.Creditcardusersalsoknowthisscenarioquitewell-theyborrowmoneyfortheshortterminordertobuysomethingrightaway.Butwhenitcomestothestockmarketandtheimpactofinterestrates,thetermusuallyreferstosomethingotherthantheaboveexamples-althoughwewillseethattheyareaffectedaswell.Toreadmore,seeWhodeterminesinterestrates?TheinterestratethatappliestoinvestorsistheU.S.FederalReserve''sfederalfundsrate.ThisisthecostthatbanksarechargedforborrowingmoneyfromFederalReservebanks.Whyisthisnumbersoimportant?ItisthewaytheFederalReservethe"Fed"attemptstocontrolinflation.Inflationiscausedbytoomuchmoneychasingtoofewgoodsortoomuchdemandfortoolittlesupply,whichcausespricestoincrease.Byinfluencingtheamountofmoneyavailableforpurchasinggoods,theFedcancontrolinflation.Othercountries''centralbanksdothesamethingforthesamereason.Basically,byincreasingthefederalfundsrate,theFedattemptstolowerthesupplyofmoneybymakingitmoreexpensivetoobtain.ToseemoreontheFederalReserve,readGetToKnowTheMajorCentralBanks,TheFedModelAndStockValuation:WhatItDoesAndDoesNotTellUsandFormulatingMonetaryPolicy.EffectsofanIncreaseWhentheFedincreasesthefederalfundsrate,itdoesnothaveanimmediateimpactonthestockmarket.Instead,theincreasedfederalfundsratehasasingledirecteffect-itbecomesmoreexpensiveforbankstoborrowmoneyfromtheFed.However,increasesinthediscountratealsocausearippleeffect,andfactorsthatinfluencebothindividualsandbusinessesareaffected.Thefirstindirecteffectofanincreasedfederalfundsrateisthatbanksincreasetheratesthattheychargetheircustomerstoborrowmoney.Individualsareaffectedthroughincreasestocreditcardandmortgageinterestrates,especiallyiftheycarryavariableinterestrate.Thishastheeffectofdecreasingtheamountofmoneyconsumerscanspend.Afterall,peoplestillhavetopaythebills,andwhenthosebillsbecomemoreexpensive,householdsareleftwithlessdisposableincome.Thismeansthatpeoplewillspendlessdiscretionarymoney,whichwillaffectbusinesses''topandbottomlinesthatis,revenuesandprofits.Therefore,businessesarealsoindirectlyaffectedbyanincreaseinthefederalfundsrateasaresultoftheactionsofindividualconsumers.Butbusinessesareaffectedinamoredirectwayaswell.They,too,borrowmoneyfrombankstorunandexpandtheiroperations.Whenthebanksmakeborrowingmoreexpensive,companiesmightnotborrowasmuchandwillpayahigherrateofinterestontheirloans.Lessbusinessspendingcanslowdownthegrowthofacompany,resultingindecreasesinprofit.Forextrareadingoncompanylending,readWhenCompaniesBorrowMoney.StockPriceEffectsClearly,changesinthefederalfundsrateaffectthebehaviorofconsumersandbusiness,butthestockmarketisalsoaffected.Rememberthatonemethodofvaluingacompanyistotakethesumofalltheexpectedfuturecashflowsfromthatcompanydiscountedbacktothepresent.Toarriveatastock''sprice,takethesumofthefuturediscountedcashflowanddivideitbythenumberofsharesavailable.Thispricefluctuatesasaresultofthedifferentexpectationsthatpeoplehaveaboutthecompanyatdifferenttimes.Becauseofthosedifferences,theyarewillingtobuyorsellsharesatdifferentprices.Ifacompanyisseenascuttingbackonitsgrowthspendingorismakinglessprofit-eitherthroughhigherdebtexpensesorlessrevenuefromconsumers-thentheestimatedamountoffuturecashflowswilldrop.Allelsebeingequal,thiswilllowerthepriceofthecompany''sstock.Ifenoughcompaniesexperienceadeclineintheirstockprices,thewholemarket,ortheindexesliketheDowJonesIndustrialAverageortheS&P500thatmanypeopleequatewiththemarket,willgodown.Tolearnmore,checkoutWhyDoMarketsMove?,ForcesThatMoveStockPricesandWhatcausesasignificantmoveinthestockmarket?InvestmentEffectsFormanyinvestors,adecliningmarketorstockpriceisnotadesirableoutcome.Investorswishtoseetheirinvestedmoneyincreaseinvalue.Suchgainscomefromstockpriceappreciation,thepaymentofdividends-orboth.Withaloweredexpectationinthegrowthandfuturecashflowsofthecompany,investorswillnotgetasmuchgrowthfromstockpriceappreciation,makingstockownershiplessdesirable.Furthermore,investinginstockscanbeviewedastooriskycomparedtootherinvestments.WhentheFedraisesthefederalfundsrate,newlyofferedgovernmentsecurities,suchTreasurybillsandbonds,areoftenviewedasthesafestinvestmentsandwillusuallyexperienceacorrespondingincreaseininterestrates.Inotherwords,the"risk-free"rateofreturngoesup,makingtheseinvestmentsmoredesirable.Whenpeopleinvestinstocks,theyneedtobecompensatedfortakingontheadditionalriskinvolvedinsuchaninvestment,orapremiumabovetherisk-freerate.Thedesiredreturnforinvestinginstocksisthesumoftherisk-freerateandtheriskpremium.Ofcourse,differentpeoplehavedifferentriskpremiums,dependingontheirowntoleranceforriskandthecompanytheyarebuying.However,ingeneral,astherisk-freerategoesup,thetotalreturnrequiredforinvestinginstocksalsoincreases.Therefore,iftherequiredriskpremiumdecreaseswhilethepotentialreturnremainsthesameorbecomeslower,investorsmightfeelthatstockshavebecometoorisky,andwillputtheirmoneyelsewhere.InterestRatesAffectbutDon''tDeterminetheStockMarketTheinterestrate,commonlybandiedaboutbythemedia,hasawideandvariedimpactupontheeconomy.Whenitisraised,thegeneraleffectistolessentheamountofmoneyincirculation,whichworkstokeepinflationlow.Italsomakesborrowingmoneymoreexpensive,whichaffectshowconsumersandbusinessesspendtheirmoney;thisincreasesexpensesforcompanies,loweringearningssomewhatforthosewithdebttopay.Finally,ittendstomakethestockmarketaslightlylessattractiveplacetoinvestment.Keepinmind,however,thatthesefactorsandresultsareallinterrelated.Whatwedescribedaboveareverybroadinteractions,whichcanplayoutininnumerableways.Interestratesarenottheonlydeterminantofstockpricesandtherearemanyconsiderationsthatgointostockpricesandthegeneraltrendofthemarket-anincreasedinterestrateisonlyoneofthem.Therefore,onecanneversaywithconfidencethataninterestratehikebytheFedwillhaveanoverallnegativeeffectonstockprices。